Market Wrap
Currencies
The currencies seem to be the asset
class from which most of the other major markets key off. This makes sense, as currencies
are money, upon which all financial and economic systems are based.
They are units of account, and mediums
of exchange, not to forget: legal tender, although unconstitutionally so. But
that is another story for another time.
During the late 90’s and early 2000’s,
the yen carry trade was in vogue: borrow short and lend long. I remember
writing papers on how Japan’s zero bound interest rate policy was a death trap
that would pull the rest of the world into the same dark hole.
There was one particular member of the
Austrian School of economics that used to argue that a zero bound interest rate
policy, by any major economy, especially the United States, was absurd and
couldn’t and wouldn’t be attempted. Nonetheless, it was.
What this unsound policy meant was that
investors could borrow the Japanese yen at or near zero interest rates and turn
around and buy U.S. Treasury bonds paying at first 8%, then 6%, then 4%, and
now 2.6%; and simply pocket the difference in yield. It was a license to steal.
This was known as the Greenspan put,
which has now become the Bernanke put. It is a tacit promise from the U.S. that
any investor who subsidizes government debt, will be taken care of. Profits are
essentially guaranteed.
Huge loans resulted, which were known
as the yen carry trade. Recently, the sucking sound of money being siphoned away
from the productive sectors of the U.S. economy, and into the unproductive debt
markets, can be heard here in the U.S., as it too sports a zero bound interest
rate policy, similar to Japans. This is market intervention at its worst, and
will end badly, as it always does.
The chart below shows the precipitous
fall of the euro/yen cross during the 2008 financial crisis. As the euro/yen
cross was unwound, the euro took a big hit, while the yen rose in value, as
many loans were liquidated (brought back or paid off). The yen is now the world’s
strongest currency: go figure.
Now, the U.S. is following the same
mistaken path of unsound monetary policy and zero bound interest rates. Money
is being usurped by the government bond market, instead of going into savings and
investment in the productive sectors of the economy. Notice on the chart the
divergence between the euro/yen cross (lower lows) and stocks (higher lows). Something
has to give.
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