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veritas
odium parit
"Roaring
deep calls to roaring deep…"
SOCIAL SECURITY DEBATE
The
Social Security debate has become as popular as the inflation
versus deflation debate. Both issues are obviously of grave
importance in regards to the future well-being of our Nation. As
with any complex topic, the opinions vary from a to z. Ask ten
“experts” their opinion, and you will most likely get eleven
different answers.
Paul
Krugman, writer for the New
York Times, is of the opinion that there is a lot of
confusion, which is the main culprit, of the many
misunderstandings of the social security system, which he
apparently believes he has a solid understanding of. Let’s
take a closer peak to see what we can learn from Mr. Krugman on
the subject. He begins by saying:
”There
is a lot of confusion in the debate over Social Security
privatization, much of it deliberate. This essay discusses the
meaning of the trust fund, which privatizers declare either real
or fictional at their convenience; the likely rate of return on
private accounts, which has been greatly overstated; and the (ir)
relevance of putative reductions in far future liabilities." Paul
Krugman, Confusions about Social Security -
VOLUME
2 (2005), ISSUE
1: A Special Issue on Social Security, Columns]
I
agree with Mr. Krugman’s view regarding the privatization of
the social security fund. I do not believe that privatization is
a good idea, or that it would solve any “problems”, but
might very well create more problems. However, I disagree with
Mr. Krugman’s focus on the privatization topic as being the
central or critical issue of importance when discussing social
security. Mr. Krugman continues on by saying:
“There
are three main points of confusion in the Social Security debate
(confusion that is deliberately created, for the most part, but
never mind that for now). These are:
-
The
meaning of the trust fund: in order to create a sense of
crisis, proponents of privatization consider the trust fund
either real or fictional, depending on what is convenient.
-
The
rate of return that can be expected on private accounts:
privatizers claim that there is a huge free lunch from the
creation of these accounts, a free lunch that is based on
very dubious claims about future stock returns.
-
How
to think about implicit liabilities in the far future:
privatizers brush aside the huge negative fiscal
consequences of their plans in the short run, claiming that
reductions in promised payments many decades in the future
are an adequate offset” [Krugman].
Mr.
Krugman then proceeds to explain what social security is,
however, his explanation didn’t appear all that clear and
concise, I’m not sure if it even appeared, so I thought I
would provide a quick synopsis of just what social security is
and isn’t. Then at least we will all know just what it is we
are discussing, which usually helps tremendously in such
endeavors.
SOCIAL INSURANCE
Social
Security is a social insurance
system. It was
established in 1935 with the intent and purpose of providing
benefits to workers and their family members upon retirement,
disability, or death. It is what is called an earned
benefit insurance program.
What
this means is that only those who work and pay
taxes are eligible for social security benefits. By
their labor, and by paying taxes on their earned income, derived
from their labor, workers are then eligible to receive benefits,
i.e. payments in money upon retirement, disability, or death.
Note
the distinction that social security is a social
insurance system. This is a critical point and will
be revisited. Also note that the social insurance system in an earned
benefit insurance program, as this distinction is
also very important. Now for some quoted information from the Economic
Policy Institute, which
provides some definitions and explanations for these terms:
“Social
Security benefits are guaranteed
to beneficiaries. Because
Social Security is not an investment scheme but rather a social
insurance program, its benefits will continue to be paid as long
as a beneficiary depends on them. Social Security's finances are
not subject to the ups and downs of the stock market, or the
luck of individual investors. The promise
of Social Security benefits is
instead backed by the
good faith of the U.S. government,
pretty much in the same way that the government backs the value
of the dollar. Thus, there is no uncertainty for
beneficiaries—once they start receiving benefits, they will
continue to receive them in the future.” [Economic
Policy Institute].
So
far things sound pretty good, almost too good – to be true.
Good intentions do appear to be in place, offering those in need
a helping hand, which help they have earned by their own labor
and payment of taxes into the social security system. But
perhaps there are other ways just as, if not more, efficient?
WHAT PROBLEM?
Of
particular interest in the above quote is the sentence that
reads: “The promise of social security benefits is instead
backed by the good faith of the U.S. government, pretty much in
the same way that the government backs the value of the
dollar.” This is one of the most critical issues, and will
be revisited in detail.
Mr.
Krugman states in his article the following:
“The
bigger problem for those who want to see a crisis in social
security’s future is this: if social security is just part of
the federal budget, with no budget or trust fund of its own,
then, well, it’s just part of the federal budget: there
can’t be a social security crisis.
All you can have is a
general budget crisis. Rising social security benefit payments
might be one reason for that crisis, but it’s hard to make the
case that it will be central.” [Krugman – Confusions about
Social Security]
Thank
you Mr. Krugman, for that very clear explanation and most
powerful reinsurance, as to the soundness of the social security
system. We can’t possibly have a social security crisis –
just a general
budget crisis,
of which social security might
be a contributing cause. Nothing to be concerned about – is
there?
It
sounds like Mr. Krugman has a fair grasp of the
situation, however, I’m starting to get a bit concerned. Is a
general budget crisis serious stuff, which could impact social
security and or vice versa? Or is a general budget crisis
something we should just brush aside, as perhaps being part of
some other larger crisis that goes by another name, one that we
let the other guys in a more appropriate department worry about?
Kind of like a game of pass the buck.
Is
anyone else starting to sense sleepless nights in the offing?
Maybe we should pull the blanket over our head and hide beneath
the covers, as it seems to work pretty well for Mr. Krugman.
What you don’t see or admit exists can’t hurt you – can
it? Could the boogie man really be hiding under the bed?
TO THE RESCUE
But
wait, coming to Mr. Krugman’s rescue is Jonathan, from the
Past
Peak website, and he has written
a whole series explaining what Mr. Krugman was trying to
explain. So let’s see what Jonathan has to say:
“As
Paul Krugman points
out, there are two
problems with this position.”
“The
more significant problem, however, is that there's a fundamental
illogic in singling out the government's obligations to Social
Security as somehow distinct from its debt obligations
generally. The so-called "IOUs" held by the trust fund
are US government bonds. The government got money to spend, and
in return it issued promises to repay, with interest — i.e.,
it issued (sold) bonds. The treasury sells bonds to all sorts of
buyers, Social Security being only one of them. The proceeds
from these sales finance the deficit.”
“In
a world where the government always operated under balanced
budgets, so that it had no debt (bonds) to sell, the Social
Security trust fund would invest in something else. Conversely,
if the trust fund hadn't bought the bonds, the government would
have sold them to someone else. The government had debt to
finance. It would have done so, whether the Social Security
trust fund existed or not.”
“There
may be a fiscal crisis in the offing, but, if so, it is a
general problem of large-scale deficits and indebtedness,
caused in no small measure by tax cuts for the wealthy. It's not
a Social Security problem. Put another way, the problem is that
so many bonds are being sold, not that Social Security happens
to be buying some of them.” [Jonathan – Social Security at Part
3 — The Trust Fund Jan.
2005].”
NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT
Well,
now I feel much better. First, Mr. Krugman has explained that we
do not have a social security problem, only a general budget
crisis. Now Jonathan explains that we “may have a fiscal
crisis in the offing,” but that’s just part of the
“general problem of large-scale deficits and indebtedness.
The
real problem is that so many bonds are being sold,
not that social security happens to be buying them.”
Calm
voices of reason in a tumultuous world. Pretty cool – isn’t
it? Or is the temperature starting to rise in the kitchen
because the oven door has been left open and the stove is
blasting out heat?
I
thought the part that reads, “in a world where the government
always operated under balanced budgets, so that it had no debt
(bonds) to sell, the Social Security trust fund would invest in
something else... conversely, if the trust fund hadn't bought
the bonds, the government would have sold them to someone else.
The government had debt to finance. It would have done so,
whether the Social Security trust fund existed or not” is most
telling. But just what is it telling?
First,
does a world exist where the government always operated under
balanced budgets? If not, then the point trying to be made has
no standing.
Second,
the government had debt to finance - correct. So “if the trust
fund hadn't bought the bonds, the government would have sold
them to someone else.” Correct again. But what does that have
to do with it?
It
being the discussion as to whether their is a crisis with social
security, or what other crisis’s there may be out there
lurking in the shadows. Perhaps we have another one of those
paradoxical conundrums to deal with. Bummer.
Lastly,
the more I think about it, I’m not sure just what Jonathan
means when he says, “the problem is that so many bonds are
being sold, not that social security happens to be buying some
of them.” Perhaps he will offer a future explanation to
alleviate the chance that I am misinterpreting what he said.
However,
the way it reads it sure sounds like a case is being made that
says there is no problem with social security buying or
investing in bonds, bonds that collectively add up to, as he
calls it – a problem: “the
problem is that so many bonds are being sold, not that Social
Security happens to be buying some of them.”
It
appears that the government is selling too many bonds, or is
issuing too much debt, or as Jonathan says, that’s
just part of the “general
problem of large-scale deficits and indebtedness.”
So according to Jonathan,
there’s no problem that social security is buying bonds that
are being over issued. If there’s a problem with the bonds,
that’s the bonds problem. Hmm.
AN ANALOGY
Say
my child starts hanging around with some kids at school that
take drugs. The kids take the drugs because they have emotional
problems that they are trying to escape from. They are in a
state of denial. At the very least, they are attempting to
self-medicate the pain they are feeling.
I
would say that I may have a problem, or at the least a potential
problem, with my child; and that my child may have a potential
problem based on the company she has chosen to associate with.
My child is being exposed to questionable and potentially
dangerous behavior.
For
me to ignore and deny the situation, and the possibilities it
entails, by saying, hey man, my kids cool, it’s just her
choice of friends that aren’t cool, and who are the real
problem – such complacency is a prescription for an accident
looking for a time and place to happen. And it will. Nip it in
the bud, before it has time to blossom
An
even bigger mistake would be for me to think that her friends
don’t even have a problem, it’s just that drug dealers sell
drugs, and they have to sell them to somebody, so why not her
friends? But then the real rub – why not sell to her as well?
When it gets that close to home, it unfortunately gets easier to
see. Suddenly people take notice.
Problems
do not go away by ignoring them, or by denying they exist.
Saying it’s not your problem, let somebody else worry about
it, doesn’t cut it as well. Problems get solved by action, not
by lack of action, except in fairly uncommon situations, where
non-action is the preferred course of action. However, this
usually applies to aggression and the response, thereto.
There’s a saying that goes: “if your not part of the
solution, then you’re definitely part of the problem.”
I
don’t know about Mr. Krugman, but I’m not sure if I would
want Jonathan writing anything in support of my position on
social security. But hopefully I just don’t understand it all,
and one or the two of them will offer a future explanation to
clear up the mess we seem to have had placed before us.
THE ROUND UP PLOY
Getting
back to Mr. Krugman, in another section of his paper he states:
“But
the privatizers won’t take yes for an answer when it comes to
the sustainability of social security. Their answer to the
pretty good numbers is to say that the trust fund is
meaningless, because it is invested in U.S. government bonds.
They aren’t really saying that U.S. government bonds are
worthless; their point is that the whole notion of a separate
budget for social security is a fiction. And if that’s true,
the idea that one part of the government can have a positive
trust fund while the government as a whole is in debt does
become strange.” [Paul Krugman, Confusions about Social
Security].
Just
to set the record straight, so their isn’t any more confusion
than already exists: I do not believe in privatization of social
security. However, why do I, or anyone else, have to belong to
the “privatizers” to question the validity of social
security?
Might
it be because to label all possible dissenters under one group,
i.e. the “privatizers”, it thereby, makes it easier to
seemingly answer all questioners on the validity of social
security, by answering just this one group – the
“privatizers”. Cause if that’s the case – that’s just
a case of weaseling out of a complete and fully disclosed
discussion of all the issues involved in a fairly complex topic.
The
following information is from the government website on social
security: Trust
Fund Data:
“The
Social Security Trust Funds are the Old-Age
and Survivors Insurance
(OASI) and the Disability
Insurance (DI)
Trust Funds. These funds are accounts maintained by the
Department of the Treasury. They serve two purposes: (1) they
provide a mechanism for keeping track of all income to and
disbursements from the trust funds, and (2) the assets of the
funds provide automatic spending authority. To clarify the
second point, no legislation is needed to spend a portion of
trust fund assets on benefits or administrative costs (the
Social Security Act limits expenditures to benefits and
administrative costs).”
Notice
the last sentence that reads “no legislation is needed to
spend a portion of trust fund assets on benefits or
administrative costs (the Social Security Act
limits expenditures
to benefits and administrative
costs).” This point will be revisited.
INFLATION’S ROLE IN ALL OF THIS
Continuing
on with information from the government website we read:
“Benefits
to retired workers and their families, and to families of
deceased workers, are paid from the OASI Trust Fund. Benefits to
disabled workers and their families are paid from the DI Trust
Fund.”
“A
Board of Trustees oversees the financial operations of the trust
funds. The Board reports annually to the Congress on the financial
and actuarial status of the trust funds.”
If
you click on the above link to the financial and actuarial
status of the trust funds you will arrive at a list of
government publications on social security. If you click on the
first publication listed, 2005
OASDI Trustees Report , you can read the most recent trustee
report.
You
will be given a list of options to click on and read. Under the
option labeled List
of Figures you can find the following by scrolling down to
chapter VI Appendixes and clicking on VI.F1
Estimated OASDI Income and Cost in Constant Dollars, Based on
Intermediate Assumptions
“This
section presents long-range projections in dollars of the
operations of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds and in some
cases the HI Trust Fund. Meaningful comparison of current dollar
values over long periods of time can be difficult because of the
effect of inflation.
Some
means
of removing inflation is thus generally desirable.
Several economic series or indices are provided to allow current
dollars to
be adjusted for changes in prices, wages, and certain other
aspects of economic growth during the projection period.” [Trust
Fund Data]
Notice
the sentence that reads, “meaningful comparison of current
dollar values over long periods of time can be difficult because
of the effect of inflation.”
Hmm. Now what could inflation have to do with this, to be so
powerful and important that it renders meaningful comparisons of
current dollar values difficult.
I
don’t recall Krugman or Jonathan mentioning anything about
this, but I may have missed that part. We will go into this in
much more detail later on. For now, back to the government
website.
SPECIAL-ISSUE SECURITIES
Next
on the site the following is offered:
“By
law, all income to the trust funds that is not immediately
needed to pay expenses is invested, on a daily basis, in
securities guaranteed as to both principal and interest by the
Federal government. All securities held by the trust funds are
"special issues."
Such securities are available only to the trust funds.
In
the past, the Trust Funds have held "public issues"
(marketable securities available to the general public). Unlike
marketable securities, special issues can be redeemed at any
time at face value. Marketable securities are subject to
the forces of the open market and may suffer a loss or enjoy a
gain if sold before maturity. Investment in special issues gives
the trust funds the same flexibility as holding cash.
Data
on trust fund investments provide
a breakdown by interest rate and trust fund for any month after
1989.” [Trust
Fund Data]
All
securities held by the trust funds are "special
issues." Cool,
special issues. Maybe this is why some aren’t too concerned
with social security, but I don’t remember Mr. Krugman or
Jonathan mentioning special issues. I thought they both used the
term government bonds, and that Jonathan even mentioned that the
government had to sell the bonds to someone, so if not social
security, then someone else would have bought them.
But
now we find they are special
issued bonds –
only for social security trust funds. Which means that
“others” can’t purchase them. Hmm. The plot thickens. Why
it’s almost like reading a mystery novel, or a novel mystery
might be more apropos. Where’s Holmes when you need him? Out
chasing that damn hound again. But I digress...
So
what’s so special about these bonds? Well, it says that
“unlike marketable securities, special issues can be redeemed
at any time at face value.” Yes indeed, that
is a special arrangement.
I wonder who thought that one up? Must have gotten a nice bonus
for that one.
And
what’s the part mean that reads, “marketable securities are
subject to the forces of the open market and may suffer a loss
or enjoy a gain if sold before maturity. Investment in special
issues gives the trust funds the same flexibility as holding
cash.”?
It
sounds like these special issue bonds are safer or more flexible
than “regular marketable
securities”, allowing
them to be akin to holding cash. Cool. Holding cash and getting
paid an interest rate commensurate with long term bonds.
Doesn’t get much more special than that.
I
wonder why the government gets to do that, but the rest of us
don’t. Maybe you should ask your Congressman, and vote
accordingly.
LONG RANGE SOLVENCY
Further
down the website we read:
“As
stated in the answer to "What
happens to the taxes that go into the trust funds?",
most of the money flowing into the trust funds is invested in U.
S. Government securities. Because the government spends this
borrowed cash, some people see the current increase in the trust
fund assets as an accumulation of securities that the government
will be unable to make good on in the future. Without
legislation to restore
long-range solvency of the
trust funds, redemption of long-term securities prior to
maturity would be necessary.” [Trust
Fund Data]
The
last sentence gives one reason to pause, as it says, “without
legislation to restore long-range solvency of the trust funds,
redemption of long-term securities prior to maturity would be
necessary."
Now
I’m getting confused, and hence a bit more concerned, but not
to worry, I get confused easily. Everything is said to be cool,
the fund is solvent. I’m not saying it isn’t. But I’m
curious as to why the fund needs to invest in special issue
bonds if everything is so copasetic?
And
what caused the fund to switch from regular marketable
government securities to the special issues? Was there something
wrong with the regular issued ones?
Couple
that with the last sentence that reads, “without legislation
to restore long-range solvency
of the trust funds,
redemption of long-term securities prior to maturity would be
necessary.” Hmm. I guess that answers why they invest in
special issued securities, just in case they ever have to redeem
them prior to maturity. Could there be other reasons as well.
Hmm. The plot thickens even more. Yummy.
So
why, if they are investing in securities that have a feature
that allows for early redemption, are they stating that, “without
legislation to restore long-range solvency of the trust funds,
redemption of long-term securities prior to maturity would be
necessary.”
Maybe
I’m missing something, but doesn’t saying that “without
legislation to restore long-range solvency”, sound like there
is a bit of a problem?
First,
to restore implies that something needs fixing, which implies it
is broke, or it wouldn’t need fixing.
Secondly,
that which needs to be restored is “long-range
solvency”, and it
definitely appears that somebody is concerned with the
long-range solvency of social security, as in the social
security administration – but not Mr. Krugman.
Then
at the bottom of the website we find the following gems:
“Far
from being "worthless IOUs," the investments held by
the trust funds are backed by the full faith and credit of the
U. S. Government. The government has always repaid Social
Security, with interest. The special-issue securities are,
therefore, just as safe as U.S. Savings Bonds or other financial
instruments of the Federal government.
Many
options are being considered to restore long-range trust fund
solvency. These options are being considered now, over 35 years
in advance of the year the funds are likely to be exhausted.
It is thus likely that legislation will be enacted to restore
long-term solvency, making it unlikely that the trust funds'
securities will need to be redeemed on a large scale prior to
maturity.
In
the annual Trustees
Report, projections
are made under three alternative sets of economic and
demographic assumptions. Under one of these sets (labeled
"Low Cost") the trust funds remain solvent for the
next 75 years. Under the other two sets (the
"Intermediate" and "High Cost"), the trust
funds become depleted within the next 40 years. The intermediate
assumptions reflect the Trustees' best estimate of future
experience.” [Trust
Fund Data]
So
if it is true that “the special-issue securities are,
therefore, just as safe as U.S. Savings Bonds or other financial
instruments of the Federal government”, and I’m not saying
they are not – then why do they bother even having a
special-issue security?
And
if there aren’t any problems, then why are they looking at
“options are being considered now, over 35 years in advance of
the year the funds are likely to be
exhausted.”?
Finally,
doesn’t the wording, “the trust funds become depleted within
the next 40 years” sound a bit problematic? Somebody seems to
be aware of the problem and a bit concerned, so why isn’t
Krugman?
And
I think it’s the guys that work for the government who wrote
the information on the website that are most concerned, as they
know the system that they work daily with. But I could be wrong.
It has happened before, and I’m pretty sure it will happen
again in the future as well.
But
one thing I know for sure, Mr. Krugman is not concerned or
worried at all. Why? Got me, I don’t know. Some say, however,
that ignorance is bliss. But I don’t know that either, perhaps
Mr. Krugman can enlighten us. On the social security site, the
last words are:
“The
assets of the larger trust fund (OASI), from which retirement
benefits are paid, were nearly depleted
in 1982. No beneficiary was
shortchanged because the Congress enacted temporary emergency
legislation that permitted borrowing from other Federal trust
funds and then later enacted legislation to strengthen OASI
Trust Fund financing. The borrowed amounts were repaid with
interest within 4 years.” [Trust
Fund Data]
WHAT MARKETS PAY ATTENTION TO
Returning
to Mr. Krugman’s article, near the end we read:
“As
has been widely noted, last year’s prescription drug law, if
it really goes into effect as promised, worsens the long-run
federal budget by much more than the entire accounting deficit
of social security. If markets really looked far ahead, the
passage of that law should have caused a sharp rise in interest
rates, maybe even a crisis of confidence in federal solvency. In
fact, everyone pretty much ignored the thing – just as they
will ignore the putative future savings in the Bush plan.” [Krugman]
“What
markets will pay attention to, just as they did in Argentina, is
the surge in good old-fashioned debt.”
[Paul Krugman, Confusions about Social Security]
Once
again I find myself confused, and once again I hope Mr. Krugman
explains this so even I can understand it. But when he says,
“what markets will pay attention to, just as they did in
Argentina, is the surge in good old-fashioned debt”, it
appears that he and the market have both missed the surge in
debt.
The
surge in debt is being ignored just as Mr. Krugman states that
the passage of the prescription law, and the sharp rise in
interest rates, and the crisis of confidence in federal solvency
that the passage of the law should have caused, are all being
ignored. Ignorance is in vogue. It has almost become a paradigm.
As Jim Puplava
clearly explains in his Storm Watch article
Tipping
Points, debt is expanding at unprecedented and alarming
rates:
“In
economic terms, the American consumer has acted as buyer of last
resort. Last year American consumers borrowed $1,017.9 billion,
up from $839.4 billion the previous year. Since the year 2000,
consumer indebtedness increased by $3,246.2 billion compared to
an increase of consumer income of $1,440 billion.”
“Outstanding
consumer debt more than doubled to over $10 trillion between
1992 and 2004. While consumer balance sheets continue to be
laden with debt, there are very few signs of savings."
“Last
year savings in the US was only $133 billion, roughly a third of
what it was in 1995 when savings was $306 billion.”
“In
1995 the US added $4 of debt for every $1 in savings. Last year
that figure expanded to over $20 of debt for every $1 of
savings.”
“The
problem for most Americans is that taxes and inflation are
taking their toll on most households. Income gains aren’t
keeping up with inflation, which is grossly understated as a
result of hedonics.”
“This
has lead to more households turning to debt to pay for a
lifestyle their incomes can’t support. The median family
income has risen only 11% after adjusting for inflation since
1990.”
“At
the same time, median household spending has jumped 30% and
outstanding household debt has jumped 80%.” [courtesy of Jim
Puplava - Storm Watch
Update - Tipping
Points]
Apparently
both the market and Mr. Krugman have failed to notice and
appreciate the recent surge in debt. The market missing the boat
I can understand, the old greed versus fear thingy, and the
madness of crowds engendered by the herd instinct. But how Mr.
Krugman has missed this very obvious occurrence defies all sense
of awareness of his supposed field of expertise. His grasp of
the current situation seems to be tenuous at best, and most
precarious at its worst.
Returning
to Jonathan – Social Security at
Part
5 — Motives Jan.
2005, unfortunately we don’t seem to fare any better. From
part 5 we read:
“I
think it's obvious that Republican motives in this have nothing
to do with helping people like you and me — one just has to
look at everything else they do. But, as it happens, in this
case we don't have to guess. A strategy memo
by Peter H. Wehner, deputy to Karl Rove, was leaked recently. It
says, in part:
‘Let
me tell you first what our plans are in terms of sequencing and
political strategy. We will focus on Social Security immediately
in this new year. Our strategy will probably include speeches
early this month to establish an important premise: the current
system is heading for an iceberg. The notion that younger
workers will receive anything like the benefits they have been
promised is fiction, unless significant reforms are undertaken.
We need to establish in the public mind a key fiscal fact: right
now we are on an unsustainable course. That reality needs
to be seared into the public consciousness; it
is the pre-condition to authentic reform.’
“Hence,
the hype. The most important sentence, though, is probably
this:”
‘For
the first time in six decades,
the Social Security battle is one we can win – and in doing
so, we can help transform
the political and philosophical landscape of the country.’
“There.
He said it. It’s about transforming the political and
philosophical landscape of the country.”
“Josh
Marshall's comments
on this sentence of Wehner's were so good that I'd like to quote
them at length:”
‘In
other words, this isn't about the fiscal soundness of Social
Security or the babyboomers moving toward retirement or anything
else. As Wehner himself says, this is the best chance the
opponents of Social Security have had in six decades of trying
to phase-out the program.
And
this allows us to see the whole matter clearly. Social Security
has been around for seventy years. How many people do you know
who really don't like Social Security? Back when I was younger
I'd go spend part of my summer at the subsidized retirement
community where my grandparents lived. And I don't remember many
people who lived there bad-mouthing Social Security. And those
folks had lived under the program for pretty much all of their
adults lives.
Or,
the more relevant question, how about people today? How many
people think Social Security is a bad thing? A program that
never should have existed? I'm not saying how many worry that
the program may not be there when they retire. How many people
don't even like the whole concept?
I
think they're in a distinct minority.
So
now you can see from memos emerging from the White House itself
that this
isn't about "saving" Social Security. If it were, what
would that sentence mean — ("For the first time in six
decades, the Social Security battle is one we can win")?
The first time in six decades they can save it?
Clearly,
this isn't about "saving" Social Security. It is a
battle to end Social Security and replace with something that
Wehner clearly understands is very different, indeed the
antithesis of Social Security.
This
entire debate is about ideology — between people who believe
in the benefits Social Security has brought America in the last
three-quarters of a century and those who think it was a bad
idea from the start. There is an honest debate to have on this
point, a values debate. Only, the White House understands that
the belief that Social Security was always a bad program isn't
widely shared by Americans. So they have to wrap their effort in
a package of lies, harnessing Americans' desire to save Social
Security in their own effort to destroy it.’
[above
quote from Jonathan – Social
Security Part 5 — Motives
Jan.
2005]
Pretty
serious stuff, and I actually agree with it, up to a certain
point. Much of the debate from the current administration is of
a political nature – and is about idealogy.
However,
I’m not convinced that the
ideology
is
necessarily “between
people who believe in the benefits Social Security has brought
America in the last three-quarters of a century and those who
think it was a bad idea from the start.”
My
opinion is that the present administration needs something,
almost anything, to hang its hat on, especially since Iraq
hasn’t been going according to their stated script, although
what is stated and what is truly desired may very well be two
different things. But that’s another story for another time.
The
focus on the social security debate, however, and the
administration’s ideas regarding privatization, are
for two obvious reasons:
- The
first is simply as a diversion to try to take the public’s
attention away from the mess in Iraq, and to make it appear
that something – anything, is being done to help the
economy.
- The
second is that privatization of social security would give a
tremendous boost to the stock market, which is skating on
thin ice, and is in the first stage of a major secular bear
market.
If the
market goes, Bush
goes with it. And
he knows it.
Nothing
like a quick fix or injection of heroin to make the junky feel
“high” for a short period of time, until another dose is
required, which if not administered promptly, will bring on
violent withdrawal symptoms.
Watch
the yield spreads, they will be the first precursor or symptoms
of the fever to follow.
Beware
of the unwinding of the carry trades, as that will really cause
the fever to spike, hopefully the patient will not die.
So,
I agree that the administration’s reasons for their posturing
on the privatization of social security are very politically
motivated, and do indeed involve the issues of ideology.
However,
I don’t find that either privatization or politics, or any ideology
being used or manipulated by such politics, as being the
critical issue(s) that determine the soundness and viability of
social security.
Part
two to be forthcoming shortly
Nothing
But The Truth
Time
protects Truth from Envy and Discord

"Ever-ageing
Time teaches all things."
Verbum
Caro, Panem Verum

© 2005 Douglas V. Gnazzo
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